Since the economic crisis started in 2008, governments increased their expenses massively to keep the economy working. While a couple of years have passed, there are still no clear indications of improvement, and large government debts are causing trouble, especially in the European Union.
When the worldwide stock and house market collapsed, the returns on savings accounts started decreasing rapidly. An increasing number of people started putting their money in government bonds. Government bonds are known for their low risk profile, but also for their low investment return.
However, during the financial crisis a lot of European countries increased their short time government expenditures in order to save organizations such as banks and insurance companies. The idea of these impulses is that the government will earn them back when the economy recovers: tax returns will increase and social security expenses will decrease.
Government bonds are often added to investment portfolios because of their low risk profile. In this way they can decrease fluctuations in the return on the portfolio, for the simple reasons that their return is too low and they are used in combination with stocks and options. Decreasing fluctuations is not the only reason (institutional) investors use government bonds. They also speculate on the direction of the interest rate.
Now, after four years, where there has been little or no improvement in the situation, countries are starting to experience problems because of their high government expenses and the little returns these have had. Meanwhile, the confidence in a solution coming along within a small period of time has reached an all-time low, which causes interest rates on government bonds to increase rapidly.
For investors, the question arises whether this increase is a pleasant surprise. An increasing interest rate on a safe investment is not a bad development, right? Governments always repay their debts - or are there other risks?
This consideration between risk and return on government bonds is a very interesting case, especially when we take a closer look at the European Union. During this symposium we will address this topic with different intentions. We will try to let the people, who play different parts when looking at government bonds, explain what their possibilities are or which opportunities they see in the current market.
So to discuss the opportunities, market development and trading of government bonds, we would like to welcome you on the 31st of May 2012!
Risk Investment Day - 2012